In early September, my Year-To-Date (YTD) calculations had my Portfolio out-performing the S&P 500 for the first time in a long time. However, in a few short weeks, with the Information Technology sector on a roll since then, my Portfolio is no longer ahead of the S&P 500. I’d say I’m about 4% off the pace the S&P 500 is setting.
The S&P 500 has posted roughly a 2% gain in the last month. Meanwhile, my Portfolio is just slightly better than flat over that time. Not exactly the performance I was looking for this month, but it beats being in the red.
Over the past month in the S&P 500, Healthcare and Utilities have performed well, with Energy being a laggard.
After a good month from Healthcare stocks, all S&P 500 sectors are now in the green this year. The S&P 500 is up about 16% YTD (not including reinvested dividends). Communication Services and Information Technology are leading the way, with both sectors up about 28% on the year. Consumer Staples is bringing up the rear now, with a return of just under 3%.
Some Portfolio news… for now, I continue to reinvest my dividends into the stocks that paid them. However, once we enter 2026, I expect to turn off the DRiPs and begin using my dividends to help pay my living expenses. The dividends won’t cover everything, but that’s OK.
I’ll be covering my usual items in this month’s Portfolio Thoughts post…
- Price Movement – I’ll look at my top advancers and decliners in my Portfolio during the past month.
- Top 10 Review – I’ll update my Top 10 Portfolio stocks and how they changed rank this past month.
- Weightings – I’ll examine the sector weightings within my Portfolio and let you know where I’ve made progress with regard to getting into my preferred weighting ranges.
- Watch List – I’ll share which stocks I’m looking at as I prepare to invest my capital in the coming months.
Here are my Portfolio Thoughts for October 2025…
Price Movement
Note – my price changes cover closing prices from 9/26/25 to 10/24/25.
For the 2nd straight month, I had more stock decliners than stock gainers. In fact, there was one more decliner in October than I had last month. The decliner/gainer ratio was a bit more than 5:4. Of my 58 holdings, 33 fell in price, while the remaining 25 rose in price. Once again, there were no monster movers, as no stocks were up or down 20%. However, a small group of stocks did change more than +/-10% in price, some on both sides of breakeven.
Here were the stocks with the biggest moves to the upside and downside…
Of my 25 stocks that rose in price in October, none climbed by 20%. However, I did have 3 stocks that notched better than a 10% gain (the usual threshold I monitor for). In addition, I had another 9 stocks that gained at least 5%.
My top gainers in October were:
- Caterpillar (CAT), popping 12.23%
- Merck & Co. (MRK), jumping 11.37%
- NextEra Energy (NEE), advancing 11.29%
- Pepsico (PEP), rising 7.91%
- Amgen (AMGN), climbing 6.88%
CAT led my list of gainers. It was #3 on my top gainers list last month, and surged to #1 in October. I love seeing back-to-back appearances – with back-to-back double-digit gains no less.
I mentioned earlier that Healthcare stocks had a good month, and you can see this reflected in my Portfolio with a pair of Healthcare stocks showing up on the top gainers list – MRK & AMGN. MRK finished the month at its highest level in 7 months, although it’s still down in 2025. Meanwhile, AMGN has been up and down all year, however it’s currently in the green after its finish in October.
NEE seems to be picking up some steam. The stock has now risen for 6 consecutive months, most noticeably in October… its first double-digit month in 2025. NEE announced good earnings, even though revenue fell short of expectations. In addition, NEE announced a partnership with Alphabet (GOOG). The deal was viewed as a significant positive and highlighted NEE’s role in the power-hungry artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
Consumer Staples haven’t performed very well in 2025, and PEP has been no exception. However, PEP had a good October thanks to its better-than-expected earnings report from earlier in the month. Sentiment has recently turned more positive for PEP.
Note – one sector in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the green this month: Utilities (3).
Of my 33 stocks that slipped in price, just 2 fell by more than 10%, and 8 more declined at least 5%. So, even though I had more stocks in the red this month than I had in the green, the big movers to the downside were slightly fewer than the big movers I had to the upside.
My worst decliners in October were…
- Fastenal (FAST), sinking 11.97%
- Verizon Communications (VZ), dropping 10.98%
- Main Street Capital (MAIN), slipping 9.88%
- Texas Instruments (TXN), sliding 8.36%
- Union Pacific (UNP), retreating 7.90%
I always hate seeing one of my Top 10 stocks show up on the top decliners list for the month. That’s what I got in October, as FAST topped my top decliners list with nearly a 12% decline. After a 6-month string of gains came to an end last month, FAST came back with another month of price decline… accelerating to the downside in October. FAST failed to meet high analyst expectations in its earnings report, and this caused the company’s growth prospects to be re-evaluated.
VZ announced a CEO change in October that caused the stock price to drop. It’s down almost 11% this past month. The stock had been relatively flat for most of the year until this news. VZ has struggled to find growth in recent years.
Declining nearly 10% and finding a place on my top decliners list was Main Street Capital (MAIN). This Business Development Company (BDC) saw rising credit risks during the month that put a dent in its valuation. This is now its 2nd straight month of declines, erasing the price gains it had accumulated throughout 2025.
Showing up on my top decliners list for back-to-back months was TXN. Both months it has posted more than an 8% drop. This is not the performance I’ve been looking for! Just over 3 months ago this was a $220 stock. Now it’s well under $170. Perhaps a small purchase could be in order.
Lastly, there’s UNP. Ongoing market concerns over a potential merger, and a generally weaker transport sector resulted in nearly an 8% retreat in its stock price in October. UNP is now in the red for 2025 after its October decline. UNP and FAST give me two Industrials stocks in my top decliners list this month.
Note – three sectors in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the red this month: Materials (3), Real Estate (3) and Energy (2). This made it back-to-back months for my Materials sector.
Top 10 Review
There was ultra-minimal movement in my Top 10 in October. To start, no new stocks entered the Top 10.
In addition, the only movement was a pair of stocks that swapped spots. For those two stocks that did change spots, it was just a one spot change.
Unfortunately, seven of my Top 10 finished in the red in October. The worst of the bunch was the aforementioned decline from FAST (nearly -12%). On the positive side, Broadcom (AVGO) was able to post a nice return (+5.86%).
Speaking of AVGO, it easily maintained its grip on the #1 spot my Top 10, even expanding its lead. AVGO is now almost 12% of my Portfolio… much more than double my preferred max weighting of 5%. I still haven’t made a decision on when to trim. I’d like to defer any trim to early next year (to push long-term capital gain into 2026), but there’s no guarantee the price doesn’t crater by then.
Aflac (AFL) declined about 3.75% in October, but managed to hold onto the #2 spot… barely. It was Qualcomm (QCOM) that came close to surpassing AFL in my rankings, but it failed to do so. Instead QCOM held onto the #3 spot, losing a minor 0.15% this month. Both of these stocks maintain a weighting north of 4% in my Portfolio.
Gaining 3.35% in October was AbbVie (ABBV). However, this didn’t allow ABBV to move out of the #4 spot. Visa (V) was my 3rd and final gainer of the month, returning 2.97%, but it remained in the #5 spot.
Holding onto its #6 spot was BlackRock (BLK). The stock lost 1.71% during October. BLK is one of three Financial stocks in my top 6, along with AFL & V.
Now we get to the pair of stocks that swapped places in my rankings. RPM International (RPM) rose one spot to #7, while Fastenal (FAST) dropped one spot to #8. RPM didn’t manage a positive return in October, losing 4.71%, but this was noticeably better than the 11.97% tumble from FAST.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) retained the #9 spot despite falling 4.94% during the month. Meanwhile Lowe’s Companies (LOW) held on to the #10 spot even though it sank 5.6%. JPM failed to keep its 3% Portfolio weighting as a result of its decline in October. It joined LOW in the sub-3% weighting category.
With the terrific gain Caterpillar (CAT) posted in October, along with the decline of LOW, CAT is now on the verge of cracking my Top 10. Further behind CAT, but still hovering outside the Top 10, are Nexstar Media Group (NXST) and Procter & Gamble (PG).
From the table above, my Top 10 holdings now comprise 43.63% of my Portfolio value. This is a decrease of 0.30 percentage points compared to last month. All that red inside my Top 10 this month resulted in the reduced weighting.
As for the dividend weighting of my Top 10, it now stands at 26.69%. This is a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points compared to last month. The dividend weighting of my Top 10 stocks was essentially flat after the recent dividend increase from RPM was offset by minor reductions in the dividend weights of my other Top 10 stocks (due to net investment outside the Top 10, and the lack of any dividend increases from those stocks).
Weightings
In general, for the Sector Diversification, I target being within +/-3 percentage points of the sector weightings of the S&P 500. For the SuperSector Diversification, I target being within +/-5 percentage points.
The “Weight Diff.” column shows which sectors sit outside my preferred weighting ranges. If I’m overweight a sector, it’s shaded green. If I’m underweight a sector, it’s shaded red. If I’m within my target weighting range, then no shading exists.
For a 2nd consecutive month, there were no changes with regard to having more or less sectors in my preferred weighting range. I continue to have 4 overweight sectors and 3 underweight sectors. Industrials is still my most overweight sector and Information Technology is still my most underweight sector.
My biggest change in weighting difference was in Industrials (-0.35%), where I got less overweight during October. Unforuntately, this was due to under-performance of my holdings in the sector versus the Industrials in the S&P 500.
All the weighting movement was price-driven, as I haven’t made any Portfolio buys or sells in the past month.
As for dividend weightings, I still have 4 sectors exceeding 12%, led by the Healthcare sector at 15.63%. All my Portfolio sectors provide at least a 4% dividend weighting, although Real Estate and Energy are on the cusp on not doing so.
As always, I’ll keep all my sector weightings in mind as I continue to adjust my Portfolio, and my watchlist.
Watch List
There were a few stocks that crossed below my respective price targets during October, but I refrained from any purchases. With earnings season upon us, I decided to wait and see.
My watchlist is ready-to-go though. It should allow for quick decisions should my price targets be reached.
Within my Portfolio, here are a few stocks that I’m watching for possible additions…
I’m still watching NNN REIT (NNN). REITs have had a pullback in recent days. I’ll consider another NNN buy below $40 to ensure that one of my smallest holdings increases in size.
For a Consumer Staples stock with a really low Beta, Hershey Co. (HSY) sure seems volatile. The price is trending down these days. A dip below $170 might call for a small buy.
After a 20% decline in the past two months, Texas Instruments (TXN) has hit my radar. I’d been looking to add a couple shares to keep the position growing. Adding to my Tech holdings is always of interest as well. I’m targeting a price under $160.
With Automatic Data Processing (ADP) hitting a 52-week low recently, adding a couple of shares is looking interesting to me. This stock has been nothing but pricey for years, so I’ll have to take a closer look while it seems depressed. I’m targeting a price below $260 for now, but prefer below $250 for extra margin.
As for stocks on my chopping block for cash-raising purposes, Comcast (CMCSA) is at the forefront for me right now. It’s been performing horribly and I’m not sure there’s a turnaround in sight, even though the stock looks cheap.
As for non-Portfolio stocks that I’m watching…
I’m still watching the same 3 stocks, but I’ve added a new one.
Zoetis (ZTS) didn’t quite reach my $140 price target during the month, but it came close ($141). The stock currently trades around $144. I’ll keep watching.
Another stock that didn’t quite touch my price target level was Costco (COST). The priced got to around $910, coming up shy of my $900 target. I’m trying to remain patient since this stock is like ADP in that it always seems to be overvalued.
Cactus Inc. (WHD), an energy company, traded below $34 back on 10/10, but I didn’t buy, as I wasn’t paying close enough attention. This was 10% below my $38 price target. Now the stock has recovered to north of $43. A missed opportunity?
Lastly, I’ve added Waste Management (WM) to my watchlist. This is another seemingly always-overvalued stock. It has also reached a 52-week low recently, crossing below the $200 level this week.
Thoughts?
With two months to go, can the stock market hold onto its 2025 gain? We are now 3 years into the current bull market… how much longer do you see this continuing? Please share your thoughts!