September turned out to be a positive month in the S&P 500, but not in my Portfolio.  After 4 consecutive months of gains in my Portfolio, I had a minor decline in September.

The S&P 500 managed roughly a 2.5% gain, but my Portfolio was slightly in the red.  Part of the reason for this is that most of the worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 for the month are the ones in which I’m overweight in my Portfolio.  Materials & Consumer Staples were a couple of those sectors that dragged down my Portfolio this month.

Also not helping… all my Consumer Discretionary stocks, and nearly all of my Communication Services stocks were all in the red even though those sectors were nicely in the green in the S&P 500 (+2.5% and +5.7%, respectively) .

Year-to-Date (YTD), the S&P 500 is up 13.25% (not including reinvested dividends).  Communication Services (+24.3%) remains the best-performing sector, while Healthcare (-1.2%) is the only sector in the red.

My Portfolio trails the performance of the S&P 500 this year, but not by too much, perhaps 1%-2%.  Not being as heavily weighted in the Information Technology is certainly a factor.

However, I don’t believe my Portfolio is as volatile as the S&P 500 index, so lagging performance during up years is expected in my mind.

I’ll be going over my usual items in this month’s Portfolio Thoughts post…

• Price Movement – I’ll look at my top advancers and decliners in my Portfolio during the past month.
• Top 10 Review – I’ll update my Top 10 Portfolio stocks and how they changed rank this past month.
• Weightings – I’ll examine the sector weightings within my Portfolio and let you know where I’ve made progress with regard to getting into my preferred weighting ranges.
• Watch List – I’ll share which stocks I’m looking at as I prepare to invest my capital in the coming months.

Here are my Portfolio Thoughts for September 2025…

 

Price Movement

Note – my price changes cover closing prices from 8/29/25 to 9/26/25.

Sadly, my run of 4 straight months with gains is over.  My Portfolio was down just barely, so it’s hard to get too upset about the loss.

In September, I had more stock decliners than stock gainers.  The ratio was a bit less than 5:4.  Of my 58 holdings, 32 fell in price, while the remaining 26 climbed in price.  I can’t say I had any big movers in price, as no stocks were up or down 20%.  However, a handful did change more than +/-10% in price, which you’ll see momentarily.

Here were the stocks with the biggest moves to the upside and downside…

 

Of my 26 stocks that climbed in price in September, none rose by 20%.  However, I did have 4 stocks that registered more than a 10% gain (the usual threshold I monitor for).  In addition, I had another 5 stocks that advanced at least 5%.

My top gainers in September were:

• Alphabet (GOOG), surging 15.76%
• Broadcom (AVGO), ratcheting up 12.49%
• Caterpillar (CAT), popping 11.15%
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH), climbing 11.04%
• Lockheed Martin (LMT), advancing 6.98%

 

My gainers were led by GOOG.  This tech giant has now increased in price for a 6th consecutive month… Amazing!  GOOG was on my top gainers list last month, too, also with another double-digit percentage gain.  GOOG rose thanks to a favorable antitrust ruling, as well as continued strong performance in its core business and AI initiatives.  The stock hit a 52-week high this month.

Speaking of stocks on a roll, AVGO posted yet another month with a gain.  While AVGO wasn’t on my top gainers list last month, it too has increased in price for a 6th straight month.  AVGO gained in September due to strong third-quarter financials that included record revenue and higher-than-expected AI-driven semiconductor growth.  There was also news of a new $10B custom AI chip order from a major customer, which is believed to be OpenAI.  AVGO has grown to become 11.3% of my Portfolio… well past the 5% weighting that I wish to have for any individual holding.  I’ve yet to decide if I want to trim this holding or not.

Next up was the first of two Industrials stocks to make my top gainers list.  CAT pushed to a 52-week high after notching a gain of 11.15%.  Strong infrastructure demand from the likes of AI data center growth, among other things, helped the price escalate.

UNH locked down a place on my top gainers list for the 2nd month in a row.  Granted, this only puts a small dent in the decline that UNH has suffered in 2025.  The company announced positive preliminary Medicare Advantage quality ratings during September.  The numbers were consistent with historical targets, which allayed investor worries that they would be worse than historical norms.

Rounding out my top gainers list was LMT.  For the 2nd straight month, LMT has recorded a strong gain.  The stock has now risen to a price not seen since late January.  It seems that the ongoing global conflicts as well as increased spending from NATO members and other allies is helping the stock.

Note – no sectors in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the green this month.

 

Of my 32 stocks that declined in price, just two fell by more than 10%, but ten more declined at least 5%, too.  So, more stocks showed up in the red (compared to the green), but perhaps their losses weren’t as pronounced.

My worst decliners in September were…

• Eastman Chemical (EMN), tanking 10.85%
• Nike (NKE), sinking 10.42%
• Air Products & Chemicals (APD), tumbling down 9.29%
• Texas Instruments (TXN), retreating 8.86%
• Accenture (ACN), dropping 8.08%

 

I’ve got two repeat offenders on this month’s top decliners list:  EMN and ACN.  That’s never a good thing.

EMN notched a double-digit percentage loss for the 2nd straight month.  It’s now down over 30% on the year.  Ouch!  This is now the smallest position in my Portfolio.  Apparently, weakening demand and a challenging global economic environment has led to lower earnings in recent quarters.  Recent disappointing guidance hasn’t helped either.

It was NKE that almost finished as my top decliner this month.  It also posted a decline of more than 10% in September.  NKE is expected to show a sales decline in this week’s earnings.  The company is in the midst of managing a turnaround strategy, and it’s trying to navigate increased tariffs as well.

APD is my second Materials stock in my top decliners list this month, joining EMN.  The stock has been trading in the $260-$300 range for over 6 months.  Earlier in the year, APD announced a strategic shift back to its core industrial gas business while exiting some clean energy projects.  This led to a large write-down and created investor concerns over the long-term direction of the company.

I’ve also got two Information Technology stocks on my top decliners list this month:  TXN and ACN.

TXN gave up all its gains from last month with its September decline.  Supposedly, uncertainty in the semiconductor market and a China-led trade dispute have resulted in questions surrounding near-term prospects for TXN.  Management also noted challenges in the automotive market which has dampened the hope for a recovery in that part of the business.

As for ACN, it dropped another 8% this month, repeating its loss from August.  This makes it 4 straight months of declines for ACN.  With another leg down in price, I ended up purchasing more shares in September.

Note – two sectors in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the red this month: Materials (3) and Consumer Discretionary (3).  This is the first time in 4 months that any of my sectors had all its holdings in the red for the month.

 

Top 10 Review

Top 10 movement increased in September, despite there not being any new stocks in the Top 10.  Five of the stocks maintained their position relative to last month, while the other five spots (from 4 thru 8) got shuffled up quite a bit.  Stocks held steady at the top end and bottom end of the Top 10.

For the stocks that did change spots, I had one stock drop as many as three spots in the rankings, and one move up by that same amount.

Even though my ratio of rising stocks to declining stocks in my Portfolio was less than 1, inside the Top 10 that ratio was better.  I had six of my Top 10 finish in the green, and just 4 in the red.  RPM International (RPM) was my worst Top 10 performer, falling 6.62%.

Broadcom (AVGO) sits at my #1 spot yet again.  It actually pulled away from my other Top 10 holdings further given its 12.5% gain in September.  As noted before, I need to decide if I’m going to let the position ride (which increases my Portfolio risk), or trim the position some to get it closer to a 5% weighting.

Aflac (AFL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) remained in the #2 and #3 spots, respectively.  Both stocks had a good month, with AFL gaining more than 4% in September and QCOM gaining better than 5%.

AbbVie (ABBV) climbed the most number of spots in the rankings this month, three.  It moved from #7 to #4 thanks to a nearly 5% gain this month.

Slipping one spot in the rankings was Visa (V).  It claimed my #5 spot (just barely) after sliding more than 4% in price during the month.

After securing a 5th consecutive month of gains, BlackRock (BLK) was able to rise two spots in the rankings to lock down the #6 spot.  It was a decent 2.5% gain in price during the month, allowing BLK to hurdle a couple of Top 10 stocks that were in the red in September.

Fastenal (FAST) lost nearly 2% during September and that resulted in it falling one spot to #7.  The negative month broke a string of 6 straight months of positive returns!

The biggest drop in my rankings came from RPM International.  The stock dropped three spots to #8 on the heels of a price decline that approached 7%.  All my Materials stocks performed poorly in September.  Somewhat surprisingly, RPM was actually the best of the bunch.

For the 2nd month in a row, remaining in the #9 and #10 spots were JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Lowe’s Companies (LOW).  JPM had a terrific month, gaining nearly 5%.  LOW on the other had, was just slightly negative in September.  LOW also failed to hold onto its 3% Portfolio weighting (it’s now 2.97%).  These two stocks were very close in my rankings in terms of value at the end of August, but now some separation exists between them.

 

 

Nexstar Media Group (NXST), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Caterpillar (CAT) are the stocks closest to cracking my Top 10 at this time, but even NXST would need a good month (or a disappointing one from LOW) to make that happen.

 

From the table above, my Top 10 holdings now comprise 43.93% of my Portfolio value.  This is an increase of 1.02 percentage points compared to last month.  Solid gains from my Top 10 relative to the remainder of my Portfolio helped the weighting increase happen.

As for the dividend weighting of my Top 10, it now stands at 26.68%.  This is a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to last month.  The dividend weighting of all my Top 10 stocks dipped slightly in September due to my minor net investment outside the Top 10, and the lack of any dividend increases from the group.

 

Weightings

 

In general, for the Sector Diversification, I target being within +/-3 percentage points of the sector weightings of the S&P 500.  For the SuperSector Diversification, I target being within +/-5 percentage points.

The “Weight Diff.” column shows which sectors sit outside my preferred weighting ranges.  If I’m overweight a sector, it’s shaded green.  If I’m underweight a sector, it’s shaded red.  If I’m within my target weighting range, then no shading exists.

There were no changes with regard to having more or less sectors in my preferred weighting range.  I still have 4 overweight sectors and 3 underweight sectors.  Once again, Industrials continued to be my most overweight sector, with Information Technology still being my most underweight sector.

I did notice that in September, nearly all my weighting differences got worse (i.e. further away from being in my preferred weighting range).  The only sector where this didn’t occur was Materials, and that was because this overweight sector in my Portfolio performed so much worse than the corresponding sector in the S&P 500 – not how I want it to happen!

In the underweight sectors, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary weighting differences got worse due to my stocks performing poorly.  As for Information Technology, my SWKS sale made my weighting difference worse, and my ACN buy wasn’t enough to compensate.

In the overweight sectors, my good performance in Financials and Healthcare relative to their S&P 500 sectors, made the weighting situation worse, but I can live with that as you might imagine.  Things got worse in Industrials due to me adding some FedEx (FDX) shares during the month.

As for dividend weightings, the Healthcare sector still leads the way, at 15.66%.  Financials, Information Technology & Industrials remain significant contributors, too, at over 12% each.  Despite my NNN REIT (NNN) purchase during the month, my Real Estate sector still has the smallest dividend weighting in my Portfolio.  However, each sector now has at least a 4% dividend weighting.

 

As always, I’ll keep all my sector weightings in mind as I continue to adjust my Portfolio, and my watchlist.

 

Watch List

I made a cluster of transactions late in September.  Most of the ideas came from my watchlist that I discussed last month.  For instance…

One of the stocks I thought I might trim to raise some cash for retirement was Skyworks Solutions (SWKS).  When the price jumped up in September, I took that as a cue to make my move and sell some shares, which I did.  However, I didn’t save the cash from the sale, but instead reinvested in other Portfolio positions that I wanted to see grow.

I used the sale proceeds to buy some shares of NNN even though it didn’t dip all the way to my price target of $40.  I also bought some additional shares of Accenture (ACN) even though it didn’t exactly reach my target price of $237.38 either.  I then continued the trend by buying some FDX shares even though they failed to cross below my target of $220.

Even though the stock market continued to nudge higher in September, there are still stocks out there that I think I could buy.  So, I’m keeping my watchlist at the ready.  Here’s what’s on my watchlist this month…

 

Within my Portfolio, here are a few stocks that I’m watching for possible additions…

NNN, ACN and FDX still remain on my list, along with their targets I noted above.  Maybe next time I’ll actually purchase when they are trading below my target price!

Tech stocks Salesforce (CRM) and Amdocs Ltd. (DOX) remain on my list.  Both declined in price during September and both trade below the target prices I set up last month – $258 and $86, respectively.  CRM currently trades around $237 while DOX trades around $82.  So, a purchase of either (or both) could be in order in October.

As for stocks on my chopping block for cash-raising purposes, I still have the following: T. Rowe Price Group (TROW), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Omnicom Group (OMC) and Comcast (CMCSA).

 

As for non-Portfolio stocks that I’m watching…

Things got interesting here.  I still have the same 3 stocks as last month, but each declined in September, with one crossing my target price.  Will I buy?  We’ll see.

Zoetis (ZTS) fell below my $150 price target, even dipping below $140 last week.  I’m going to lower my target to that $140 level based on how it’s been trading this past month.  The stock currently trades around $146.

Costco (COST) slipped in price this month, inching closer to my $900 target.  It got as low as $916 in the past week.

Cactus Inc. (WHD), an energy company, now trades below my former $40 price target, but hasn’t quite reached my newer $38 target that provided extra margin.  Earnings growth doesn’t look like it will happen until calendar year 2026, so that’s a bit of a deterrent.

 

Thoughts?

What’s your take for the direction of the stock market in this upcoming final quarter of 2025?  Is it time to take some money off the table given the performance of the stock market these past 3 years?  Please share your thoughts!