With July bringing more positive returns, my Portfolio is looking better than ever. Capital appreciation is occurring in tandem with the ever-reliable dividend income.
As retirement draws closer, my Portfolio continues to tack on gains. This certainly helps pad my financial nest egg and provide some confidence to leave the workforce, but it seems to increase the possibility of a stock market retreat once I actually retire. The last thing I want to see is a decline shortly after I retire. That would certainly put sequence-of-return risk at the forefront of my mind.
Oh well, I can’t eliminate all risks. I’ll just have to keep my eyes open and manage the risks as they present themselves. Nothing can derail this retirement train now!
The S&P 500 continued to grind higher in July, adding about 3%. All sectors managed to be in the green for the month, although some just barely so. Information Technology was the leader once again, although not by an outsized percentage.
For the year, the S&P 500 is up over 8%. Industrials (+15.3%) and Information Technology (+13.6%) have been the leading sectors, with Healthcare (-2.7%) & Consumer Discretionary (-1.3%) being the laggards.
I’ll be covering my usual items in this month’s Portfolio Thoughts post…
- Price Movement – I’ll look at my top advancers and decliners in my Portfolio during the past month.
- Top 10 Review – I’ll update my Top 10 Portfolio stocks and how they changed rank this past month.
- Weightings – I’ll examine the sector weightings within my Portfolio and let you know where I’ve made progress with regard to getting into my preferred weighting ranges.
- Watch List – I’ll share which stocks I’m looking at as I prepare to invest my capital in the coming months.
Let’s check out my Portfolio Thoughts for July 2025…
Price Movement
Note – my price changes cover closing prices from 6/27/25 to 7/25/25.
For the 3rd consecutive month, the stock market advance translated to a better than 2:1 ratio of stock gainers relative to decliners in my Portfolio. That’s outstanding.
In July, my ratio of stock gainers to stock decliners was 2.33:1. Of my 60 holdings (still counting AMT & FLO for this month), 42 rose in price, while the remaining 18 slipped in price. I also experienced many strong percentage gains during July that weren’t offset by equivalent declines. Better than half of my stock gainers (23 of 42) topped 5%, while only a few stock decliners (4 of 18) lost more than 5%.
Here were the stocks with the biggest moves to the upside and downside…
Of my 42 stocks that climbed in price in July, I sadly didn’t have any that moved up by 20%. However, I had a solid 9 stocks with at least a 10% gain (the usual threshold I monitor for). and another 14 stocks that managed to advance at least 5%, too.
My top gainers in July were:
- Fastenal (FAST), surging 13.80%
- Cummins (CMI), ballooning 13.45%
- Caterpillar (CAT), gaining 12.75%
- Hershey Co. (HSY), climbing 12.05%
- Main Street Capital (MAIN), advancing 11.65%
Industrials stocks led the way in my top gainers list in July – they took the top 3 spots! FAST, CMI and CAT all had gains north of 12.7%… quite impressive.
FAST powered to a new 52-week high with its gain of 13.8%. While CMI didn’t reach a new 52-week high, it has tacked on about $100/share since the depths it reached in April.
CAT had a repeat showing in my top gainers list. It landed in my #3 spot in July by gaining over 12.7%. It was #4 last month, gaining better than 12%, too.
I was happy to see Consumer Staples stock HSY make an appearance on my top gainers list. This is the highest the stock has been in 2025 (sweet!), but it would need to top $200 to establish a new 52-week high.
Rounding out the top gainers list was MAIN. I trimmed my MAIN position in mid-July on the back of this month’s advance (and its 20% gain over the past 3 months). MAIN led all my Financials in July, although T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) gave it a run for its money.
Note – 3 sectors in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the green this month: Consumer Discretionary (3), Materials (3) & Energy (2). That’s now 3 straights months that all my Consumer Discretionary holdings have been positive.
Of my 18 stocks that fell in price, just a single one tumbled by more than 10%, and only three declined by more than 5%. It’s hard to get worked up about that. This handful of losses was fairly easy to tolerate.
My worst decliners in July were…
- Texas Instruments (TXN), sinking 10.67%
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH), tumbling 9.07%
- Lockheed Martin (LMT), retreating 8.16%
- Quest Diagnostics (DGX), sliding 5.22%
- Comcast (CMCSA), declining 4.64%
Compared to last month, this is a completely new set of top decliners. Most of this month’s top decliners came from different sectors, although I do show a couple of Healthcare names in UNH and DGX.
Leading to the downside in July was TXN. While the earnings report delivered Q2 numbers that beat expectations, Q3 guidance disappointed investors and they punished the stock. The poor guidance raised concerns about future chip demand, especially in the automotive sector. TXN went from my top gainers list in June to my top decliners list in July.
UNH seems to be a frequent visitor to my top decliners list in recent months. This time around its presence was due to its EPS miss, lower-than-expected full-year guidance, and ever-present concerns about rising medical costs. In addition, the company faces multiple investigation related to Medicare billing and potential fraud. I’m expecting more pain with UNH in the short-term.
Another company hitting my top decliners list due to its earnings report was LMT. The company revealed a significant decline in profits (80%) due to a classified Aeronautics-related charge. This is the 3rd consecutive monthly decline for LMT.
While DGX didn’t have any big negative news to report, the stock dropped nonetheless. DGX has been range-bound (between $167 and $178) for the better part of 5 months.
Lastly, there’s CMCSA. Broadband subscriber losses always seem to be in focus, and the negative trend noted in the earnings for a competitor (Charter Communications) affected CMCSA.
Note – no sectors in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the red this month. That makes it two months in a row!… which is a bit surprising.
Top 10 Review
The Top 10 didn’t exhibit a lot of activity in July. While there was one new stock cracking my Top 10, there wasn’t much position shuffling among the other stocks.
Seven of my Top 10 stocks held their positions compared to last month. Outside of my lone new Top 10 stock, I only saw a pair of stocks switch spots in the middle of the rankings.
A hearty eight of my Top 10 stocks finished in the green in July, with a couple of them gaining more than 10%. I like to see that!
Once again sitting at the pinnacle of my Top 10 is Broadcom (AVGO). The stock posted another gain (7.73%) in July and has now grown to become more than 10% of my Portfolio weighting. I prefer to have no stock be more than 5% of my Portfolio’s weighting. Perhaps a trim is in order. I’ll have to give this additional thought in the near-term.
Aflac (AFL), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Visa (V) continued to hold down my #2, #3 & #4 spots, respectively. However, QCOM was close to trading places with V.
RPM International (RPM) and BlackRock (BLK) swapped spots at #5 & #6. RPM surged more than 11% during July to snatch the #5 spot from QCOM, which was basically flat for the month.
Coming close to overtaking BLK for the #6 spot was Fastenal (FAST). The almost 14% gain from FAST in July nearly did the trick. But it wasn’t enough and FAST re-claimed the #7 spot again this month. FAST has risen in price for 5 straight months.
Holding steady in the #8 and #9 spots were AbbVie (ABBV) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). Both stocks gained over 4% in July. JPM has been the hotter of the two lately though, having risen in price for 4 months running.
After a short absence, Lowe’s Companies (LOW) moved back into my Top 10, replacing Procter & Gamble (PG) in the #10 spot in the process. LOW gained about 1.4% in July, making it 3 consecutive months of small gains.
PG and Nexstar Media Group (NXST) are just outside my Top 10 now. They could easily return to my Top 10 by next month should LOW falter.
From the table above, my Top 10 holdings now comprise 42.76% of my Portfolio value. This is an increase of 0.79 percentage points compared to last month. Solid gains in July from the majority of my Top 10 helped increase their weighting, as did the sale/trim of some Portfolio holdings outside the Top 10.
As for the dividend weighting of my Top 10, it finished the month at 27.35%. This is a decrease of 0.30 percentage points compared to last month. The dividend weighting of nearly all my Top 10 stocks rose slightly in July due to my sale/trim outside the Top 10, but this was more than offset by LOW replacing PG in my Top 10 and bringing its smaller dividend weighting with it.
Weightings
In general, for the Sector Diversification, I target being within +/-3 percentage points of the sector weightings of the S&P 500. For the SuperSector Diversification, I target being within +/-5 percentage points.
The “Weight Diff.” column shows which sectors sit outside my preferred weighting ranges. If I’m overweight a sector, it’s shaded green. If I’m underweight a sector, it’s shaded red. If I’m within my target weighting range, then no shading exists.
No big changes in my overweight and underweight sectors. I still have 3 of each.
I’m just slightly outside my preferred weighting range in Communication Services. A small addition in this sector, or some out-performance relative to its corresponding S&P 500 sector, would rectify the situation.
Information Technology continues to be my most underweight sector, despite it having the largest sector weighting in my Portfolio. This sector just continues to become a larger and larger part of the S&P 500. Its weighting is now more than 1/3 of the entire index!
My Healthcare sector still has the largest dividend weighting in my Portfolio, at just over 16%. A trio of other sectors (Financials, Information Technology & Industrials) aren’t too shabby in delivering dividends to me either, as they each have a dividend weighting that tops 12%. Financials was challenging for the top dividend weighting last month, but my trim of MAIN in July reduced the dividends the sector provided and resulted in the sector falling back.
As always, I’ll keep all my sector weightings in mind as I continue to adjust my Portfolio, and my watchlist.
Watch List
I was active with regard to trading from my Watchlist in July. Not only did I buy a pair of stocks from the watchlist, but I sold a couple, too.
I added some Salesforce (CRM) and PIMCO Corporate & Income Strategy Fund (PCN) shares as I suggested, while unloading shares of American Tower (AMT) and Flowers Foods (FLO) which I mentioned were on the chopping block.
As the stock market moves higher, fewer stocks remain on my radar, but there’s always something I have my eyes on.
Within my Portfolio, here are a few stocks that I’m watching for possible additions…
My smallest position is currently FedEx (FDX). I’d like to add another couple of shares below $220. The stock currently trades a few dollars above that level.
My next smallest position is NNN REIT (NNN). I’m looking for the price to drop below $40. I’ll buy back the 13 shares I recently sold, plus more, should that occur.
With Lockheed Martin (LMT) struggling lately, I’d consider adding a share or two should it trade below $400.
In the Tech sector, Accenture (ACN) appears undervalued to me while trading at $274. If I happen to trim my AVGO position, I’d consider putting the proceeds into ACN, which would keep the money in Tech.
I’m still looking to grow my Salesforce (CRM) position. My last buy was at $258 before the stock moved a bit higher. I’d consider buying more in the low $260s, but would prefer to buy under my previous $258 purchase level.
The $300 floor that I thought UnitedHealth Group (UNH) had established last month was easily fallen through in July. So, I’m resetting my price target at $250. The stock currently trades around $266… not far off.
Remaining on my chopping block are the following stocks: T. Rowe Price Group (TROW), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Omnicom Group (OMC) and Comcast (CMCSA). I might let go of these positions in order to raise some additional cash prior to retirement.
As for non-Portfolio stocks that I’m watching…
I can’t say there’s many. I’m barely watching Zoetis (ZTS) these days, despite me mentioning it the past couple of months. I see the stock is now trading under the $150 price target I set, but I haven’t committed to buying it.
Costco (COST) has been falling lately and trades under $930. A price below $900 would pique my interest and allow me to consider initiating a position.
I mentioned Cactus Inc. (WHD) in the past. This Energy company (manufactures and sells wellhead and pressure control equipment) got outside my price range a while back, but has revisited it recently (in April). Should its price drop below $40 again, I’ll take another look.
Thoughts?
Are you worried about a pull back with stocks sitting near all-time highs? Do you feel like dividend growth has waned in the last few years? Please share your thoughts!