Last month I talked about how the stock market accelerated to the downside in March. Well, it got even worse in April!
There’s been a bit of a rebound from the worst levels, but there’s plenty of room to run to recapture the previous highs.
I can’t say there’s anything new driving the markets down. As I noted last month, stock market uncertainty stemmed from: president Trump’s tariff plans, declining consumer confidence, worsening inflation, a slowing U.S. economy and fear of a recession, among other things. The tariff tantrum seems to stand out the most though.
Now we are going to have to deal with earnings season on top of all this. Buckle up!
I didn’t really buy anything for my Portfolio during the April stock market retreat. I’d say it was more of a shuffling, and it was minimal at best. In retrospect, there were some good values to be had during the dip, making me feel like I should have pulled the trigger on a buy at least once during that time. Oh well… maybe I’ll get another chance.
In the S&P 500, the Energy sector was by far the worst performer in April. Healthcare was a notable laggard, too. A couple defensive sectors, Consumer Staples and Utilities, held up much better.
Year-to-Date (YTD), 5 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are still in the green, even though the index has lost about 5.45% (this decline is ~5.07% with dividends reinvested). Consumer Staples and Utilities are holding up the best (up close to 5% each), while Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary are depressing the index (each down more than 11.5%).
I’ll be covering the usual items in this month’s Portfolio Thoughts post…
- Price Movement – I’ll look at my top advancers and decliners in my Portfolio during the past month.
- Top 10 Review – I’ll update my Top 10 Portfolios stocks and how they changed rank this past month.
- Weightings – I’ll examine the sector weightings within my Portfolio and let you know where I’ve made progress with regard to getting into my preferred weighting ranges.
- Watch List – I’ll share which stocks I’m looking at as I prepare to invest my capital in the coming months.
Here are my Portfolio Thoughts for April 2025…
Price Movement
Note – my price changes cover closing prices from 3/28/25 to 4/25/25.
My Portfolio was certainly reflective of the stock market declines in April. My ratio of stock gains to stock declines was a bit less than 2:7 – very disappointing . Of my 59 holdings, 13 managed to climb in price, while the remaining 46 declined. Making things worse… the average percentage loss was noticeably higher than the average percentage gain, essentially magnifying the losses.
Here were the stocks with the biggest moves to the upside and downside…
Of my 13 stocks that rose in price in April, none managed to gain more than 20% (that’s 3 months running now). In addition, I only had 1 stock with at least a 10% advance (the usual threshold I monitor for). Only two other stocks gained at least 5%. There was not much green in my Portfolio this April. Let’s hope this negative run takes a turn for the better… soon.
My top gainers in April were:
- Broadcom (AVGO), popping 13.71%
- Lockheed Martin (LMT), climbing 8.19%
- Fastenal (FAST), advancing 5.99%
- Alphabet (GOOG), rising 4.99%
- Intuit (INTU), moving up 4.21%
My top gainers list was comprised of 3 holdings from the Information Technology sector and 2 holdings from the Industrials sectors. Interesting.
Thankfully for my Portfolio value, my best performing stock in April happened to be my largest Portfolio holding, too. AVGO was able to move from the top decliners list last month to my top gainers list this month. That’s quite the change of direction!
LMT was able to climb 8.19% in its attempt to recover some of its losses from February. I can’t say defense stocks have been performing very well in 2025, but LMT managed a spot on my top gainers list in April after General Dynamics (GD) was able to do it in March.
One stock performing nicely in 2025 has been FAST. It’s actually up year-to-date. FAST rose 5.99% this month to follow-up its climb from last month. Stack those months!
Portfolio newcomer GOOG is learning quickly… get onto that top gainers list. It was a modest 4.99% advance, but anything in the green during April was noteworthy. GOOG was my only Communication Services holding to gain in April.
Speaking of newcomers in my Portfolio, INTU was the last stock on my top gainers list this month with a 4.21% rise. Its appearance came on the heels of an appearance on my top gainers list last month, too. I like the consistency!
Note – no sector in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the green this month.
Of my 46 stocks that fell in price, more than a handful retreated by double-digit percentages. At least none of them sank by 20%. Yet, 7 slipped by more than 10%, which isn’t good. Sadly, another 20 stocks posted losses exceeding 5%. Wow, more than half of my losing stocks fell in excess of 5% in April. Let’s have those April showers wash away all the red.
My worst decliners in April were…
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH), freefalling 18.87%
- Chevron (CVX), sinking 16.47%
- Starbucks (SBUX), tanking 14.24%
- Nexstar Media Group (NXST), declining 13.79%
- Eastman Chemical (EMN), sliding 12.88%
My top decliners were a diversified bunch. They consisted of 5 stocks from 5 different sectors.
UNH was the worst of the lot, dropping 18.87%. There were several factors impacting the stock. Suffice it to say that UNH noted unexpected costs and issued a lowered earnings forecast. More specifically, its Medicare Advantage business experienced higher-than-expected utilization rates, and Medicare funding cuts exceeded expectations, too. UNH was on my top gainers list last month – how quickly it turns.
Falling oil prices didn’t help CVX in April. The stock collapsed 16.47% during the month. Some concerns about their Hess acquisition weighed on the stock as well. CVX was firmly in the green for 2025 until April arrived.
Make it back-to-back bad months for SBUX, claiming a spot on my top decliners list each time. Less than 2 months ago, SBUX was trading around $115. Now it’s crossed below $80. That’s big move in a short amount of time.
NXST was my top gainer last month, and now here it stands as part of my top decliners list for April after a 13.79% fall in price. This is one of my holdings with an above-average Beta, so the gyrations are expected. Perhaps the stock can rebound sharply in May.
The last stock on my top decliners list was EMN, with a 12.88% pull back in price. The stock now trades in the mid $70s. Make it double-digit percentage declines for 2 months straight now. It’s been about a year and a half since the stock has traded so low.
Note – 3 sectors in my Portfolio had all their holdings in the red this month: Consumer Discretionary (3), Materials (3) & Utilities (3). That’s 2 consecutive months for both Consumer Discretionary and Materials… ouch.
Top 10 Review
Alright, it’s now 7 months in a row that the same 10 stocks have existed in my Top 10. I’m not complaining, just really surprised.
On top of that, there was minimal movement within my Top 10. Only two stocks moved, and just one spot at that… they swapped places.
Only two of my Top 10 stocks finished in the green in April, too. Both were part of my top gainers this month – AVGO & FAST.
My top 6 holdings held their positions. AVGO and Aflac (AFL) retained #1 and #2, respectively. However, Qualcomm (QCOM) and Visa (V) were close to swapping places at #3 and #4, while the same applied to AbbVie (ABBV) and RPM International (RPM) at #5 and #6.
The only movement in my Top 10 rankings took place at #7 and #8, where FAST climbed one spot and BlackRock (BLK) slipped one spot. The nearly 6% gain FAST was able to post in April allowed it to move up.
Claiming the final two spots were Procter & Gamble (PG) and Lowe’s Companies (LOW). Despite PG having the more negative April compared to LOW, it wasn’t by much, so the two stocks held their places in my Top 10. LOW is my only Top 10 stock that doesn’t have at least a 3% Portfolio weighting.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Union Pacific (UNP) appear to be the only two stocks outside my Top 10 that have a chance to move in by next month. A collapse from PG or LOW could make it a stronger possibility as well. JPM eked out a small gain in April, while UNP sank more than 8%.
From the table above, my Top 10 holdings now comprise 41.19% of my Portfolio value. This is an increase of 1.18 percentage points compared to last month. The big share price gain by AVGO in April led to this Top 10 weighting increase.
As for the dividend weighting of my Top 10, it finished the month at 28.36%. This is a minor increase of 0.06 percentage points compared to last month. Recent dividend raises from QCOM, FAST and PG offset the slight dividend weighting declines from the other Top 10 holdings.
Weightings
In general, for the Sector Diversification, I target being within +/-3 percentage points of the sector weightings of the S&P 500. For the SuperSector Diversification, I target being within +/-5 percentage points.
The “Weight Diff.” column shows which sectors sit outside my preferred weighting ranges. If I’m overweight a sector, it’s shaded green. If I’m underweight a sector, it’s shaded red. If I’m within my target weighting range, then no shading exists.
In April there was no change to the number of sectors I had that were outside of my target weighting range. I still have 3 overweight sectors (Industrials, Financials & Materials) and 2 underweight sectors (Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary).
With regard to the overweight sectors, I got further away from my preferred weighting range in Financials due to my out-performance in that sector relative to the index. I’ll take that. Unfortunately, in Industrials & Materials, I’ve faded farther away from my preferred weighting ranges due to the under-performance of my holdings in those sectors. FedEx (FDX) and UNP hurt me in Industrials, while all my Materials holdings lost more than 8% in April… no bueno!
As for the underweight sectors, I’m worse off now in Consumer Discretionary due to poor performance from SBUX and Nike (NKE) during April. However, I did make progress when it came to getting into my preferred weighting range in Information Technology thanks to the outstanding performance of AVGO this month.
Information Technology retained the largest sector weighting at 19.79%. AVGO helped the sector widen its lead over Financials. which have a weighting of 18.37% in my Portfolio. After my American Tower (AMT) trim last week, Real Estate has a weighting of 2.40% and is getting close to becoming my smallest sector. But for now, that title remained with Energy and its 2.26% weighting.
Healthcare and Financials continue fighting to become my top sector providing dividend income for my Portfolio. Right now, it’s Healthcare with a slim lead, 16.12% vs. 15.45%. As for the sectors providing me with the least amount of dividend income, it’s a 4-way battle with Energy, Real Estate, Materials and Consumer Discretionary all in the 4% to 5% range.
As always, I’ll keep all my sector weightings in mind as I continue to adjust my Portfolio, and my watchlist.
Watch List
I didn’t add much to my Portfolio in April, but one of the two stocks I did add in April was a watchlist stock last month. It was NextEra Energy (NEE) that fit the bill. My price target for NEE was ready and I didn’t have to think long when the time came to buy.
After another month of stock declines, plenty of stocks appear to be attractively priced, despite the recent recovery. A few of these stocks have become part of this month’s watchlist and are highlighted below.
Within my Portfolio, here are a few stocks that I’m watching for possible additions…
The potential for a global trade slowdown in reaction to potential tariffs didn’t do FDX any favors in April. The stock fell right through the $230 level I set last month, and the stock now trades around $210.
Despite my NEE addition in April, the stock is still ripe for adding more, especially if it continues to trade in the mid $60s.
The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is currently trading around $91, which is below the $95 target level I had last month. This stock dipped well into the $80s in April, but I didn’t buy. I’ll see if I can add some shares south of $90 moving forward.
Nike (NKE) is now below the $60 level I set just last month. I’ll see if I can get something done in May as long as it stays where it is around $56.
After a big drop in April, I’m looking at Chevron (CVX) again. The current price around $136 has the shares looking a bit undervalued.
Another stock that tanked in April has come onto my radar – UnitedHealth Group (UNH). Rising Medicare pressures have contributed to the downfall. The stock is as inexpensive as I’ve seen it since the pandemic lows. Picking up a few shares around $410 (which is where it currently trades) would be acceptable to me.
I could see adding a few shares of Starbucks (SBUX) below $75, too. The positive vibes the stock had earlier this year as the new CEO settled in have evaporated.
Last but not least, should Pepsico (PEP) sink below $130, that could trigger a small share addition for me.
As for non-Portfolio stocks that I’m watching…
There aren’t many, as I’ve got plenty of stocks to watch within my Portfolio already. However, there’s one stock I’m still keeping my eyes on.
Zoetis (ZTS) is currently just above the $155 price target I set last month. However, I’m dropping the target to $150 to make it less likely I add a new stock to my Portfolio. I want to be certain that my entry price looks good. To be honest, even $150 isn’t a screaming buy. I’ll just re-evaluate ZTS should it get below that level.
Thoughts?
The stock market has rebounded well after the tariff-related dip. Is this just a head fake, and we eventually move lower in May? Tell me what you think… Please share your thoughts!