You’ve made it through Christmas, but have New Year’s Eve/Day to go.  If you have kids, the hard part is probably over and perhaps you can coast into 2020 from here.  However, maybe you’ve got big plans for New Year’s Eve.  If so, have a great time!

In any case, it’s time to start wrapping up 2019 if you haven’t started yet.  As for the markets, we’ve got a couple of trading days left.  I don’t anticipate any trading activity on my part, but I won’t rule it out.  I feel I’ve got my Portfolio in a good position heading into 2020.

The markets and my Portfolio have had a terrific year.  I believe the S&P 500 is up over 31% with reinvested dividends.  I suspect my Portfolio is doing even better.  It will be exciting to share the results in my annual performance review next month.

After not viewing/discussing the top 10 in my Portfolio last month, let’s check it out once again, as there’s been some movement of note.

While the top 5 hasn’t changed, RPM International (RPM) has switched places with Qualcomm (QCOM) several times over the past couple of months.  The same has taken place between Visa (V) and Air Lease (AL).

In the #6 and #7 spots, Union Pacific (UNP) and Pepsico (PEP) have actually traded places since my last report on my top 10.

The big top 10 news is Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) working its way onto the list for the first time… and debuting at #8!  It’s been a big move up for SWKS recently, which you’ll note when I discuss my gainers for the month.

Aflac (AFL) fell from #8 to #10, while T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) stayed at #9.  So, with SWKS being new to the top 10, who fell out?  Well, that stock was Nike (NKE), previously perched in the #10 spot.  However, NKE’s fall from the top 10 wasn’t due to poor performance, as NKE is near a 52-week high.  It was instead massive out-performance on the part of SWKS that forced NKE off the list.

As you can see in the table below, these top 10 holdings comprise just over 36% of my Portfolio value, and over 28.5% of the dividend weighting.

I don’t have any plans to add to any of my top 10 positions as this time, as I consider all of them full positions.  However, if an opportunity arises to add some shares at favorable prices, I may do so, even if it makes them temporarily overweight in my Portfolio.

 

 

Let’s now go over the standard Portfolio Thoughts items… which are my recent Portfolio transactions, price movement for my Portfolio stocks, and what might be on my watchlist.

 

Transactions

It was rather quiet with regard to Portfolio transactions this past month.  However, I did sneak in one purchase just days ago.  I added some shares to one of my Portfolio stocks for the first time since I initiated the position.  I invested nearly $1,780 with the purchase, and it inched my forward dividend income to a very intriguing monthly average level.

The number of stocks in my Portfolio remains at 46.

All the details for my lone purchase this month are still quite fresh, and can be found in my Recent Buy – GD post from yesterday.  Check it out.

 

Price Movement

Note – my price changes cover closing prices from 11/27 to 12/27.

It seems the Portfolio gains just keep coming.  I believe that’s 4 consecutive months of gains for me.  Once again, my Portfolio recorded roughly a 3-to-1 ratio of stocks with price gains compared to price declines.  For the 46 holdings, 34 moved higher, while 12 moved lower.  This was nearly identical to last month.

Of the 34 stocks that rose, 3 moved up over 10%, while another 9 stocks climbed better than 5%.  In general, it appears the group collectively delivered good gains, as opposed to a few outliers pulling the group up.

Leading the collection of gainers this month was the aforementioned SWKS, posting a gain of 22.74%.  Sweet!  SWKS appears to have benefited from the news surrounding a Phase 1 U.S./China trade agreement.  Couple that with good iPhone sales from it largest customer (Apple), and also what should be a ramp of 5G in 2020, and we have a recipe for price gains.  The upward price movement for SWKS hasn’t been just a December thing either, as the stock has been climbing steadily since its August lows.  However, most of the gains came in October and December.  Semiconductor stocks overall have had a nice Q4.

My second best gainer this month was Kontoor Brands (KTB), with a gain of 17.93%.  The current price for KTB is about as high as the stock has been since its VF Corp (VFC) spinoff back in May.  Unfortunately, KTB is my smallest Portfolio position, so this month’s large percentage gain only had a minuscule impact on my Portfolio value.

My last 10%+ gainer for the month was VFC, which moved up 12.25%.  I don’t recall there being any specific news to move the stock, but it may be trade related as well.  The move could be sector/industry specific with the stock moving up for the same reasons as KTB.

A couple of stocks that just missed the 10%+ mark for me were Nexstar Media Group (NXST) and TCF Financial (TCF), which gained 9.61% and 9.14%, respectively.

Of the 12 stocks that fell in price, none managed to decline more than 6%.   This stayed well above the 10% decline level which really gets my attention.  My biggest laggards were a couple of REITs.   Falling the furthest was W.P. Carey (WPC), dipping 5.97%.  That was closely followed by Realty Income (O), which pulled back 5.72%.

AFL and General Dynamics (GD) were my next largest decliners, falling 4.01% and 2.67%, respectively.  Gilead Sciences (GILD) was my only other stock that fell more than 1%, as it retreated 1.74%.  Nothing too bad on the negative side this month… it’s a shame the losses can’t be limited every month.

 

Watch List

As stock prices climb month after month, good purchases become harder to find.  However, as I always say, that doesn’t stop me from looking.  I never know when an opportunity will present itself, so already having some idea of what I want to do keeps me at the ready.

I still have some capital to deploy, but after my GD purchase a couple of days ago, I’m inclined to hold off on further purchases and see how things shake out in the first couple of weeks of 2020.

Within my Portfolio, here are some stocks that I’m watching for possible additions…

Despite my GD purchase the other day, I’d happily consider adding more should the price decline, especially if it drops below $170 any time soon.

I mentioned Comcast (CMCSA) last month.  Despite it climbing a bit since then, it’s still a candidate for an addition.  The stock has generally been range bound for about 9 months, trading between $42 and $46.  A dip to the lowest end of that range could trigger a small purchase for me.

Lastly, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a possibility for yet another small share purchase.  A $70 price is still well below my current cost basis of $79.51.  With the help of a strong year of market gains, XOM is now one of only five stocks in my Portfolio that is showing a paper loss.

As for non-Portfolio stocks that I’m watching…

Boeing (BA) and FedEx (FDX) continue to be watched, but for now I steer clear of any purchases.  While the negative news surrounding these two companies might ultimately present good price entry points, I’d rather wait for better news to arrive.

I’ve still got an eye on Automatic Data Processing (ADP).  The stock is about $10 above the level I’d really like to see.  However, if the stock dropped below $165 I’d be motivated to initiate a small position and start monitoring it more closely.

Lastly, I’ll mention a stock that I probably noted a year or two ago, but which has very recently hit my radar again, The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE).  The stock has generally traded sideways or down since I first highlighted my interest.  However, over the summer the company acquired a couple of restaurants designed to boost growth.  With the price now nearly $38 the stock is looking interesting.  The yield has grown to 3.75%.  Given the fickle nature of customers in the casual restaurant space, if I did pursue this stock, it would probably be one of my smaller positions.

That’s it for Portfolio Thoughts for 2019!  I plan to continue sharing thoughts throughout 2020, too.  See you in the new year…

 

Thoughts?

Where does your portfolio stand as we close out 2019 and head into 2020?  Is your portfolio far away from where you want it to be?  Are you in the middle of portfolio changes (such as re-balances, or buys/sells for better portfolio diversification), or is your portfolio well-positioned for the future you see?  Please share your thoughts!