Ugh.  Similar to last month I’m just barely getting my Portfolio Thoughts posted prior to month’s end.  Better late than never, though.

On tap in this post are a handful of transactions to summarize from the past few weeks, some surprising price movement to ponder for some Portfolio stocks, and a quick check of my ever-evolving watch list.

Mixed in can be changes I’m contemplating to improve the Portfolio.  This might be thoughts about stocks/sectors I want to overweight or underweight, or stocks I wish to add or remove.

 

Transactions

I was busy on the transaction front again this month.  However, it was mostly re-shuffling (an equal amount of sells and buys), as opposed to only an influx of new capital being invested.  In addition, the sales were all partial sales of existing holdings, and all the purchases added to existing holdings.

I kicked off November with a partial sale of Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), and subsequently directed the proceeds into Abbvie (ABBV) the next day.  You can read more about this swap in my Recent Transactions (OHI & ABBV) post from earlier this month.

About 3 weeks later I had another burst of activity.  In this instance I sold a portion of Hormel Foods (HRL), and moved the sale proceeds into Lowe’s Companies (LOW).  That was followed by a partial sale of W.P. Carey (WPC) and a subsequent purchase of Altria (MO).  More details on these trades can be found in my Recent Transactions (HRL, LOW, WPC, MO) post from just the other day.  Check it out.

The result of all the transactions was a net cash investment of $465.30.

Despite all the transactions, the number of stocks in my Portfolio remained steady at 41.

 

Price Movement

Note – my monthly price changes include closing prices from 10/30 to 11/29.

I’m happy to report that my Portfolio value moved north again this month after a rough October.

As usual, let’s focus on the positive first.  I had 31 of my 41 Portfolio holdings post a gain over the past month.  Lots more green compared to last month.  Of the 31 positive movers, 6 racked up gains over 10%.

The leader was industrial Fastenal (FAST), with a gain of ~15.5%.  Not too far behind was Starbucks (SBUX) with a gain of ~14.1%.  OHI was another impressive climber, moving up ~11.9%.

Rounding out the group of best upward movers, with gains between 10%-11% for each are: CVS Health (CVS), ABBV, and Nexstar Media Group (NXST).

I can’t say I recall any big news leading these stocks to the upside.  Also, it was good to see the positive movers be a collection of stocks from various sectors, although CVS and ABBV coexist in the Healthcare sector.

Thankfully, the list of stocks to the downside was significantly shorter at 10.  However, 4 of the 10 stocks were down over 10%.

Most of the decliners come from the Consumer-based sectors, and one resides in Technology.  My biggest loser was Target (TGT) at just over 17%.  That was followed by an almost 15.9% loss from Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a nearly 15.1% fall by Altria (MO), and about an 11% decline from Hanesbrands (HBI).

Company-specific news definitely played a role in moving most of these stocks to the downside.  TGT tanked after coming up short on revenue and earnings estimates in its most recent quarterly earnings report.  SWKS dropped thanks to its downside earnings guidance for Q4 and market concern for key Apple suppliers over possible iPhone weakness.  MO plunged after a report that the FDA might pursue a ban on menthol cigarettes.  HBI may be the outlier here in not having big news drive the stock down this past month, although the downward trend over the past month appears to have coincided with the mixed bag earnings report at the beginning of November and the less-than-exciting guidance at that time.  HBI has been in a funk for a while now, and thus may be a candidate for some tax loss harvesting by me in December.  That fact that their dividend is currently frozen doesn’t help the case for HBI to remain in my Portfolio.

 

Watch List

Some of the names I’ve been watching lately have temporarily moved to a price where I’d consider buying.  However, cash is limited these days and thus in many cases I’m not always ready to act.  In addition, even when I do have cash, multiple stocks may reach a good purchase level all around the same time, and I of course have to choose the best option, leaving some stock buys to wait for another day.  In most cases, good stocks don’t stay down for long, and the opportunity is lost.  So, I just keep watching, hoping for another chance to buy at an acceptable level.

Here are some of my Portfolio stocks that I’m watching for possible additions…

I’ve added ABBV three times over the past couple of months, and am currently happy with its weighting, so it will move off my watchlist.  However, I’m still interested in increasing my weighting in Texas Instruments (TXN).  I’m looking to add to TXN below $90 in the short-term, but if it holds around $95 for a few months, I could see adding some there.

Comcast (CMCSA) is still on my radar, as it’s still one of my smaller positions that I want to increase.  I may have missed my opportunity though, as it’s been moving up slowly over the past few months.  I was looking to add below $35, but I may have to increase my target price.

I added to MO recently at ~$54.50, and would consider adding more in the $55 range should it hang around this level.

Quest Diagnostics (DGX) got smacked down over 9% today after updating its 2018 guidance and offering more modest growth expectations.  On a bright note, a surprise 6% dividend increase accompanied the negative news.  DGX is one of my smaller positions that I’d like to grow, but it increased in price shortly after I bought in late 2015 and never looked back.  This appears to be the first significant pullback in a while, despite starting a trend down late this summer.

As for non-Portfolio stocks that I’m watching…

No real change here.  I’m still watching some big name stocks for a good entry point.  As I mentioned above, the entry point in some cases has arrived and then swiftly went away.

With cash limitations, if I do initiate a position, it will be a starter position.

My list includes General Dynamics (GD), Cummins (CMI), 3M (MMM), FedEx (FDX) and Boeing (BA).  CMI has been moving up and might be the least attractive to me at this point.  I was targeting a price below $130 if I recall – it got there in late October.  MMM I’d like to buy below $190 – again, I missed a chance in late October.  FDX I’d like to buy below $220 – it actually dipped below $210 in late October as well.  BA I’d like to buy below $320 – it was below $312 earlier this week!  Set those price targets and be ready – you never know when you’ll get your chance to add a stock you’ve been watching.

 

Thoughts?

Any there any changes you are contemplating for your portfolio before the end of the year?  Any tax loss harvesting in your plans?  What stocks have you been looking to add these days?  Please share your thoughts!